Chapter 15: Q&A / Discussions

[Brian]

All right. Melethos doesn't see the darkness. I'll edit my post. Sorry about that.

[Elvis]

Hmmm good point.

Thul assumes he's not the only one that sees it, but he would probably point/motion to it as he says it. Even pointing to the boat as he shouts at the tiefling.

Battlefield habits. Not relying just on vocal commands. 😉

[Jeff]

Jun 15, 2018 10:23:08 GMT -4 Dave W. said:

Jun 15, 2018 9:27:14 GMT -4 Jeff said:

Remember, if Adamant is still carrying the headless dead body, his speed in combat is going to be 5 ft.

Sorry that got confused. Even though we never got in the rowboat, Adamant still put the body in there. If that doesn't work, he'll drop it where he was before moving up with Thul...

No problem. So ignore that icon on the map. Body's in the boat. Head's....still with Belarin?

Jun 15, 2018 10:39:55 GMT -4 Ken said:

"Bonescrape's bloody jest!" says Belarin with anger. "The nycaloth stole my idea. I was going to frame HIM for a attack!"

________

Just a quick out-of-turn comment.

Fair.

[Jeff]

Jun 15, 2018 6:43:38 GMT -4 Elvis said:

Hmmm good point.

Thul assumes he's not the only one that sees it, but he would probably point/motion to it as he says it. Even pointing to the boat as he shouts at the tiefling.

Battlefield habits. Not relying just on vocal commands. 😉

Yeah, I really do look for physical actions. So take this as a lesson for adding visual cues next time, in case it helps!

[Elvis]

Yup. Something new to add to Thul's mannerisms

[Brian]

Question, Jeff: The tiefling swordsman next to Melethos hasn't initiated an attack against him yet. If Melethos wants to move east, would he provoke an opportunity attack from that swordsman? I'm trying to decide if he needs to use the Disengage Action or just move and Dash if there is no opportunity attack. Or is it a "give it a shot and find out" situation?

[Jeff]

The latter. An opportunity attack has nothing to do with anything that comes before it. In theory, when you move past an ally, they can take an opportunity against you, too (and there are sometimes reasons to take it).

So yeah, Melethos doesn't know the guy's intent. If he moves within his reach and then goes to leave it, that tiefling can opt to take the opp attack if he wants.

[Dave B.]

I'm sorry to be an asshole, but if I get one more single digit roll from this crappy software, I refuse to use it. You can either trust me to roll real dice or someone else can roll for me. That is 6 out of 7 single digit rolls 5 of them 4 or less.

[Jeff]

Then please help me find a dice roller alternative, something that tracks rolls and rolls like you want it to.

[Brian]

On any d20 roll, you have a 45% chance of a single digit result. That's pretty close to fifty-fifty chances for a 1 through 9. Everyone has bad luck streaks, but I see no use in ascribing blame to a computer program. I remember back in Dollurh, Condign had a sequence where he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, and then he failed a save and got possessed by a ghost. Bad rolls are going to happen about half the time. Dave Bean has had a horrible series of rolls, no doubt. And regression to the mean in statistics suggests that streak will be over soon.

Just my two cents on this issue, guys.

[Dave W.]

Just makin' sure you're not waiting on me... I think I'm waiting on

7 - ?
6 - tiefling swordsmen
5 - Thul

Adamant's always last...

[Jeff]

Yup, he's almost up.

[Dave W.]

Before I post let me check... there's no difficult terrain here, right? There's no reason Adamant can't move south 4 squares and slap Nicky about a bit?

[Jeff]

Among the trees, there can be some, as well as on the rockier parts of the shoreline, yes.

But also, reread. The nycaloth is forty feet above the ground, among the treetrops. So...

[Dave W.]

Adamant twirls Syndra and flies off after the demon?

[Jeff]

Oh, you don't get helicopter paladin abilities until next level.

[Dave B.]

I just need to vent. I will keep using the roller, but I don't have to like it. So everyone can share my pain, here are my last 12 d20 rolls, all of them are attacks but one. It really is ugly.

10, 3, 4, 2, 2, 4, 2, 18, 14(Perception check), 1, 4, 2.

Feel free to pity me or sympathize with me. I doubt I can stop griping, if only because it helps me to deal with the failures.

Anyway, can we please kill the nycaloth this time?

[Dave W.]

How'd you generate this list of rolls? Is there a report other than Log? Or did you just paw through the log?

It would be interesting to see what the average or median rolls are across the group but I don't have time to read through the log just now.

Jun 19, 2018 0:22:40 GMT -4 Dave B. said:

Anyway, can we please kill the nycaloth this time?

This is a good plan...

[Jeff]

And here are Shorak's rolls from all of 2017 and everything so far in 2018. This is only the d20 rolls; this doesn't take into account the damage or sneak attack rolls. Only d20s, and the dice roller doesn't care what the roll is for: attack or skill check or whatever. And this doesn't take into account rolls made for Shorak by me or someone else, which, again, the dice roller doesn't know or care about.

To make it easier, I highlighted in yellow the actual d20 roll at the front of each line.

2017

20 Shorak rolls d20+12; = 32 #Open lock
1, 18 Shorak rolls 1d20+8; 1d20+8 = 9; 26 #Advantaged Dex save vs traps
1 Shorak rolls 1d20+12 = 13 #Disable trap
17 Shorak rolls 1d20+12 = 29 #Open lock
13, 2 Shorak rolls 1d20+12; 1d20+12 = 27; 14 #Disadvantaged Acrobatics check
11 Shorak rolls 1d20+9 = 20 #Attack roll
6 Shorak rolls d20+9 = 15 #Reaction attack
3 Shorak rolls d20+9 = 12 #Shorak's attack
19 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 29 #Ranged attack
18 Shorak rolls d20+4 = 22 #Dexterity check
4, 1 Shorak rolls 1d20+10; 1d20+10 = 14; 11 #Disadvantaged ranged attack
15 Shorak rolls 1d20+4 = 19 #Dexterity check
15, 16 Shorak rolls 1d20+10; 1d20+10 = 25; 26 #Advantaged ranged attack
6 Shorak rolls 1d20+10 = 16 #Ranged attack
1, 17 Shorak rolls 1d20+10; 1d20+10 = 11; 27 #Disadvantaged ranged attack
6 Shorak rolls d20+9 = 15 #Ranged attack
3, 7 Shorak rolls d20+9; d20+9 = 12; 16 #Advantaged ranged attack
5, 18 Shorak rolls 1d20+9; 1d20+9 = 14; 27 #Advantaged melee attack
11, 11 Shorak rolls 1d20+9; 1d20+9 = 18; 18 #Advantaged melee attack
12, 18 Shorak rolls 1d20+9; 1d20+9 = 21; 27 #Advantaged melee attack
18 Shorak rolls 1d20+12 = 30 #Stealth roll to hide
3, 18 Shorak rolls 1d20+9; 1d20+9 = 12; 27 #Advantaged melee attack
18 Shorak rolls 1d20+2 = 20 #Constitution saving throw
10 Shorak rolls d20+d4+9 = 22 #Melee attack
5 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 15 #Ranged attack
5 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 15 #Ranged attack
15 Shorak rolls d20+12 = 27 #Dexterity save
11 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 21 #Ranged attack
19, 7 Shorak rolls 1d20+10; 1d20+10 = 29; 17 #Advantaged ranged attack
1 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 11 #Ranged Attack
19, 14 Shorak rolls d20+6; d20+6 = 25; 20 #Advantaged ranged attack
17 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 27 #Ranged attack
18 Shorak rolls d20+5 = 23 #Ranged attack
6 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 16 #Ranged attack
19 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 29 #Ranged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 12 #Ranged attack
17 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 27 #Ranged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 12 #Ranged attack
5 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 15 #Ranged attack
2, 14 Shorak rolls d20+12; d20+12 = 14; 26 #Advantaged stealth check

2018

2 Shorak rolls d20+12 = 14 #Stealth check
14 Shorak rolls d20+12 = 26 #Advantaged stealth check
7 Shorak rolls d20+5 = 12 #Ranged attack sans proficiency bonus
10 Shorak rolls d20+5 = 15 #Ranged attack sans proficiency bonus
12 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 22 #Ranged attack
20, 9 Shorak rolls d20+9; d20+9 = 29; 19 #Disadvantaged ranged attack
3, 4 Shorak rolls d20+9; d20+9 = 12; 13 #Disadvantaged ranged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+9 = 11 #Ranged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+10 = 12 #Ranged attack
4 Shorak rolls d20+d4+10 = 17 #Ranged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+d4+10 = 14 #Ranged attack
18 Shorak rolls d20+d4+10 = 30 #Ranged attack
14 Shorak rolls d20+5 = 19 #Perception check
1, 4 Shorak rolls d20+d4+9; d20+d4+9 = 12; 14 #Disadvantaged attack
2 Shorak rolls d20+d4+10 = 13 #Ranged attack

That's 71 rolls, and the average is 9.7. Just slightly below average. I bet if I took the time to figure out everyone else's (including mine) it would be at least comparable. If I could somehow reach further back into all the Invisible Castle rolls as well, I but that would even out even more. In D&D, you go adding modifiers to a roll of 9 or 10 and you're probably succeeding at many/most tasks, including hits. Not every foe has an AC of 19 or 20. But the tough ones do, yeah. (Just like Adamant and Melethos are particularly hard for bad guys to hit.)

And that's all I'm going to say about this. Dave, if you don't want to roll on this system anymore, fine. I'll roll for you if you believe that somehow will make a difference. I'll do more work. But complaining about it isn't going to do anything except add more negativity. I'm absolutely willing to consider alternative means, if you can look around for a different dice roller you think is more fair. I don't have that time. What time I have I spend on the game itself. I hope it's fun. If it's not, you've got to say so.

Enemies roll low often enough, too, and there are low and high streaks for everyone. The bad guys are an ever-changing revolving door, so there's no luck that follows one or the other.[/font][/b]

[Jeff]

This was very manual for me, Dave W. I don't know if Rolz has some way of running reports. I'm guessing...not?

[Brian]

Because Jeff's number calculation intrigued me...

I went and averaged Condign/Melethos's raw d20 rolls from the start of 2017 to now. My financial calculator can hold fifty data points maximum, so I had to do three roll averages, and then average those. These were the results.

The first fifty d20 rolls: average = 11.6

The second fifty d20 rolls: average = 11.1

The final thirty-four d20 rolls: average = 9.7

The average of 134 d20 rolls was 10.8.

Statistically, for a large sample of d20 rolls, you should see the average fall between 9 and 11, with the trend closer 10 with larger the sample sets.

The conclusion: Condign/Melethos has a slightly higher d20 average roll than Shorak from 2017 through June 18, 2018, by an average of one point per roll. Big Red started 2017 with hotter die and they've slowly cooled off over the next twelve months.

If we went back farther, and gathered more data points, I'm sure that average roll would trend toward closer and closer to 10 for all of us.

Yes, this is the numbers geek in me. I can't help it.

[Jeff]

Hah, well, I just have Excel. Brian's the numbers guy.

[Ken]

My brain shut down at "fifty data points maximum." But that's damn impressive work, Brian!

[Darren]

Dont you guys have any work to do?

[Jeff]

Says the guy who also thinks the dice roller mystically has it in for him.

But anyway, that was more copying and pasting than typing. In any case, I generally try too hard to solve problems or adjust points of view. It's all I can do.

[Dave W.]

I was thinking we needed to run a regression analysis of Brian's rolls vs the rest of us to see if there a correlation since it looks like he's stealing pips from Darren and Dave B.

[Darren]

Hey, I was staying out of this one. I dont need to bring the dice roller's wrath down on me...

[Jeff]

And don't get you started on the first dice roller (which I imagine, by now, has tried to frame you for murder).

[Dave B.]

Naw, I was just having a moment. I'll try not to be negative. I just find the all or nothing way the roller seems to balance things a bit frustrating. I wouldn't be bothered if there were some rolls in the 5 to 7 range, instead of all those 2s. Eh, I'll find a way to get over it and I am not going to ask Jeff to roll for me. I can suck it up and make do. Nobody has to do anything else to calm me down, really. I'm fine now. Like I said, I just needed to vent. If we were around the table and I was rolling badly, I would vent and nobody would be bothered by it as that is part of the game as far as I'm concerned. Just nod knowingly and let's move forward. Okay?

[Dave B.]

Jun 19, 2018 6:11:15 GMT -4 Jeff said:

Round 2 begins



I didn't move Shorak on this map yet, since Streko and the bugbears will technically go first.

Yep, I only went ahead and posted to be sure nobody would have to wait on me.